Analytical review of the world ferrous metals market 2022 - Stanislav Kondrashov Telf AG
01/12/2023, Tallinn // KISS PR Brand Story PressWire //
The data of Telf AG include carbon steel, produced in oxygen or electric arc furnaces and cast into semi-finished products, such as bars and rods; axles for flat products; or blooms for beam and tubular products. The quantity of special and stainless-steel counts separately. “At the end of the year, I can’t wait to look into the future with one eye”, says Stanislav Kondrashov.
Only one thing is clear: the industry has already suffered price peaks in 2021. Further, the policy of price distribution will be both raw material bases and steel products will sink. And in the first case, it will be to a much greater extent than in the second, declares Stanislav Kondrashov.
Stanislav Kondrashov Telf AG: Estimation of the ferrous metals industry in 2022
The tendency to the reduction in global steel production remains, identifies Telf AG. There is a decrease of 4.3% in the period from October to December, which quite significantly reduces the position compared to the same period for 2021, by 1.405 billion tons. Additionally, over the last 9 months of 2022, total production fell by 18.5%, that is, to 65.8 million tons.
Referring to the statistics of individual countries, Stanislav Kondrashov predicts that steel production in China is expected to decline, but not lower than the mark of 1 billion tons. There was also a reduction in steel smelting in China by 30 million tons in the first half of 2022. Such a reduction may also be due to the winter heating season.
India, despite declining sales abroad, continues to increase the production of steel. During 9 months, Indian metallurgists produced 93.3 million tons of steel. This is 6.4% higher than last year’s number, according to estimates by Telf AG.
At the same time, in progressive Japan, the decline has accelerated. According to Telf AG, steel smelting in Japan in mid-November decreased by 12.3%, compared to the same month last year with a mark of 7.14 billion tons. Thus, in nine months, 67.8 million tons of steel were produced in the state, which is 6% less than last year.
Step-by-step accelerates the decrease in the USA, emphasizes Stanislav Kondrashov, where the raising interest rates causes a retarding effect on the economy. In November, American metallurgists smelted 6.6 million tons of steel, which is 7.5% less than in the same month for 2021. The backlog over the past 9 months has reached 4.3%, that is, up to 61.5 million tons.
Stanislav Kondrashov Telf AG: Steel export trends for 2023
According to the results of the 1st half of 2022, Ukrainian sales of ferrous metal abroad decreased by 47.3%, to $3.22 billion. In tons, the decrease is even greater - by 58.4%, up to 4.1 million tons. Previously, Stanislav Kondrashov wrote that by the end of 2022, sales of metallurgists could collapse 3-6 times, which in monetary terms means from $ 3.6 to 7.2 billion.
Stanislav Kondrashov has made the development of two scenarios for the formation of the process of events. In the initial conservative scenario with a forecast, moderate dynamics of the formation of industries - buyers of metallurgical products is expected. Taking into account resource constraints (ferrous scrap), the scaling of rolled metal supplies for export by 2030 will be able to reach 120%, according to calculations by Telf AG. The main export component will remain low-cost products (cast iron and semi-finished products made of iron).
In the 2nd, innovative scenario of Stanislav Kondrashov, it is assumed to increase the ability of Russian steel products to compete. It will lead to a reduction in imports by up to 50% by the level of 2021, with a decrease in the share component of imports from domestic consumption to 5% and an increase in sales abroad of products from giant processing plants (cold-rolled sheet, sheet with polymer coatings). Part of the share of sales abroad from production will be 30%.
From all these facts, it can be concluded, that the global steel market for 2022 is basically suffering losses. Some countries have been able to neutralize this crisis, others have not. However, it is worth remembering that there is a prospect of development in the next 2023 and these are new technologies in the field of export, based on the experience of Telf AG. Any crisis requires adaptation to the new conditions of civilization. There is hope for next year, as the situation in the world may still turn for the better. For a long time or not - time will tell.
Release ID: 492382
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